Light novel POS ranks for Year 2015

Figures in brackets after the volume titles indicate last year’s rankings if applicable. RE indicates a reentry onto the rankings. If a volume is new or came out in a previous year but has not ranked before then no figure is given.

The list below is the POS ranking for the full year 2015. The rankings cover the top 500 sellers of all books during the year, but those given below are just the light novels on the list*. This is why there are many gaps in the rankings. There are no sales figures given for this data, and the data set is different from the one Oricon uses, which explains differences in the rankings. It has the advantage, though, of reporting much lower ranks than Oricon does.

Bear in mind that, unlike Oricon, POS rankings use the calendar year for the yearly rankings data.

*26. Bakemono no Ko (Kadokawa Bunko)
*31. Sword Art Online 16
*40. Chotto Ima Kara Shigoto Yametekuru
*41. Biblia Koshodou no Jiken Techou 6 (086)
*52. Kagerou Daze 6
*55. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei 16
*60. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei 15
*67. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei 17
*83. Naruto Kakashi Hiden
*90. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 10.5
*94. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 11
100. Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei 18
103. Sword Art Online Progressive 4
104. Toshokan Sensou 1 (422)
111. No Game No Life 7
113. Okitegami Kyouko no Bibouroku (new last year, didn’t rank)
114. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 7
119. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 8
128. Kamisama no Goyounin 1 (317)
131. Naruto Shikamaru Hiden
135. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 1 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
139. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 9
141. Eiga Novelisation: Heroine Shikkoku (Shueisha Orange Bunko)
146. Bakemono no Ko (Kadokawa Tsubasa Bunko)
149. Shinyaku Toaru Majutsu no Index 12
150. Naruto Sakura Hiden
160. Naruto Konohagakure Hiden
169. Haikyuu!! Shousetsuban!! 5
174. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 2 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
175. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 6 (new last year, didn’t rank)
176. Kokuhaku Yokou Renshuu (163)
180. Toshokan Sensou 2 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
182. Kuroko no Basket Replace 6
183. Orokamonogatari
191. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 3 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
193. Okitegami Kyouko no Suisenbun
196. Kokuhaku Yokou Renshuu Ima Suki ni Naru.
199. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 4 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
202. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka 5 (new last year, didn’t rank)
203. Kamisama no Goyounin 4
204. Shinyaku Toaru Majutsu no Index 13
206. Toshokan Sensou 5 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
207. Eiga Novelisation: Strobe Edge (Shueisha Orange Bunko)
211. Eiga Ansatsu Kyoushitsu
227. Overlord 1 (new 3 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
228. Toshokan Sensou 3 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
231. Kokuhaku Yokou Renshuu Yakimochi no Kotae (212)
235. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 1 (482)
241. Toshokan Sensou 4 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
243. Ansatsu Kyoushitsu Koro-tan (402)
247. Toshokan Sensou 6 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
251. Accel World 18
255. Shinrei Tantei Yakumo ANOTHER FILES 3
265. Meitantei Conan Gouka no Himawari
268. Boruto -Naruto the Movie-
275. Raintree no Kuni (Kadokawa Bunko – Shinchosha Bunko version is rank 89)
276. Naruto Gaara Hiden
279. Kokuhaku Yokou Renshuu Hatsukoi no Ehon (460)
283. Baka to Test to Shoukanjuu 12.5
285. Naruto Akatsuki Hiden
288. Kamisama no Goyounin 3 (new last year, didn’t rank)
289. Kamisama no Goyounin 2 (new last year, didn’t rank)
299. Overlord 2 (new 3 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
305. Okitegami Kyouko no Chousenjou
322. Overlord 3 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
327. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 2 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
332. Sword Art Online Alternative: Gun Gale Online 2
338. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 10 (178)
340. Overlord 9
342. Sword Art Online Progressive 3 (079)
343. Accel World 19
344. Kokoro ga Sakebitagatterunda.
347. Shinyaku Toaru Majutsu no Index 14
376. Hataraku Maou-sama! 12
383. Naruto Itachi Shinden pt 1
387. Overlord 4 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
390. Inaku Nare, Gunjou (new last year, didn’t rank)
391. Eiga Novelisation: Heroine Shikkoku (Shueisha Mirai Bunko)
395. Overlord 5 (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
400. Eiga Novelisation: Strobe Edge (Shueisha Mirai Bunko)
402. Boku wa Tomodachi ga Sukunai 11
407. Overlord 8 (new last year, didn’t rank)
414. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 3 (new 4 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
419. Okitegami Kyouko no Yuigonsho
424. Mitsukuni-Den Part 1
435. Shinrei Tantei Yakumo 9 (new last year, didn’t rank)
439. Date A Live 12
452. Overlord 6 (new last year, didn’t rank)
457. Sword Art Online Alternative: Gun Gale Online 3
463. Hataraku Maou-sama! 13
467. Overlord 7 (new last year, didn’t rank)
468. Kidan Hyakkei
472. Jinrui Saikyou no Hatsukoi
474. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka Gaiden Sword Oratoria 4
479. Ansatsu Kyoushitsu Koro-tan 2
484. 12-sai. Soshite, Mirai
487. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 4 (new 3 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
488. Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru (423)
493. Owari no Seraph Ichinose Guren, 16-sai no Hametsu 5
494. Owari no Seraph Ichinose Guren, 16-sai no Hametsu (new 2 years ago, didn’t rank last year)
497. Yahari Ore no Seishun Love-Come wa Machigatteiru. 9 (131)

Kono Light Novel ga Sugoi! 2016 full rankings details

These are the rankings from Kono Light Novel ga Sugoi! 2016. Data originally from various sources but all verified against my copy.
This post contains all the rankings listed in the volume – click read more to see the full post (note: long post – over 1500 words despite mostly being a list)

Top series: (series in italics are new)
001. 282.23 points Yahari Ore no Seishun Rabukome wa Machigatteiru.
002. 226.27 points Sword Art Online
003. 170.53 points Tenkyou no Alderamin
004. 153.36 points Eirun Last Code
005. 149.14 points Shuumatsu Nani Shitemasuka? Isogashii desuka?Sukutte Moratte Ii desuka?
006. 140.60 points No Game No Life
007. 137.11 points To Aru Majutsu no Index Series
008. 131.43 points Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darouka
009. 117.42 points Saenai Heroine no Sodatekata
010. 101.76 points Escape Speed
011. 101.62 points Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
012. 099.75 points Boku wa Tomodachi ga Sukunai
013. 098.23 points To Aru Hikuushi e no Seiyaku
014. 096.37 points Imouto Sae Ireba Ii.
015. 091.91 points Gamers!
016. 088.54 points Kono Koi to, Sono Mirai.
017. 088.17 points Rokka no Yuusha
018. 087.37 points Durarara!! Series
019. 083.90 points Shitayome Danshi to Toukou Joshi
020. 079.18 points Tatakau Panya to Automaton Waitress
021. 070.50 points Hai to Gensou no Grimgar
022. 070.10 points Seishun Buta Yarou Series
023. 064.98 points Isekai Shokudou
024. 063.65 points Kino no Tabi
025. 062.78 points Overlord
026. 061.68 points Ryuuou no Oshigoto!
027. 059.97 points Accel World
028. 059.44 points Zetsushinkai no Solaris
029. 054.81 points Re:Zero kara Hajimeru Isekai Seikatsu
030. 050.34 points Hakozoko no Elpis

2015’s TV anime by source material

Barring some surprise late announcements we know all the tv anime airing this year by now, so I decided (prompted by an amusingly inaccurate claim on MAL) to calculate and post these figures.

Total: 197 TV anime
82 manga (41.6%)
54 original (27.4%)
25 light novel (12.7%)
14 game (7.1%)
03 picture book
03 visual novel
03 card game
03 novel
02 ???
02 book
02 otome game
01 radio programme
01 manhua
01 childrens book
01 song

read more for breakdown by season

Yen On, Fujimi Fantasia and the mystery of the missing light novel licenses

EDIT 31st March 2018 – almost 3 years later, and Yen Press have just licensed their first ever Fantasia Bunko title.

 

Kore wa Zombie Desu ka
Hitsugi no Chaika
Highschool DxD
Saenai Heroine no Sodatekata

What do these series have in common? Several things. For one, all four are ongoing light novel series published by Fujimi Fantasia Bunko. For another, all four are series that Yen Press has licensed a manga adaptation of, but not the original light novel.

They are also the only four series in this situation.

It’s hard to believe that Yen Press wouldn’t have tried to get hold of the light novels of any of these series to boost its Yen On light novel imprint, what with the rate that this has been expanding. And with yesterday’s surprise announcement of Gagaga Bunko’s OreGairu*, Fujimi Fantasia Bunko has become by far the largest (non-female oriented) light novel label which Yen Press has not licensed any titles from. And there are a lot of titles published under that label that would appear, from the perspective of someone involved in the fandom but not directly within the industry, to be good ones to pick up.

So why are the light novels not coming over with the manga?

Which series from the Kono Light Novel ga Sugoi! rankings might ACTUALLY get an anime adaptation?

Upon seeing ANN’s recent article based on a ddnavi blog post* that looked at Kono Light Novel ga Sugoi rankings to try to predict what light novels would receive an anime adaptation in the future, one thing stuck in my mind: Why did they use 2008-2011?

After all, all four of the series which are listed as not yet having an anime adaptation ended several years ago. While it isn’t (quite) unheard of for a light novel series to get an anime several years after the last volume came out, it is very unusual and thus it would make far more sense to label these series as “good series that never got an anime” rather than “series that could get an anime next”. Indeed, the chance of any of them ever getting an anime are slim to none. There’s a reason why in my previous article using sales figures to look at things with a chance of an anime adaptation I eliminated all series that had finished publishing.

So, given that the 2008-2011 data doesn’t give us anything to work with at all, I decided to look at the same rankings for the last four years to see if I could make things out from that instead.

Highest first-3-weeks light novel sales of all time

This data provides a way to compare the top volumes at their initial releases, before they get distorted by monthly/yearly rankings (for which a series released at certain times of year have significant advantage), how long they happen to stay on the rankings for, or whether or not they get lucky reappearances on the rankings well after the initial release. On the other hand, 3 weeks should be sufficiently long to not be strongly affected by the day of the week that the volume came out (although there could still be a difference of around 5% between a Monday release and a Saturday release).

This data can be used, among other things, to better reflect the change in a series’ popularity over time than looking at the total sales data can tell you. Obviously it would have been more useful with more volumes listed, and I’m starting to wonder whether or not I should have included more, or used a figure threshold rather than a rank one. It’s too late to do that now, though, and I don’t see myself getting around to adding more any time soon. Maybe when the requirement to get in reaches 180-200k or so (I was originally expecting it to be in the 140-150k range for the top 40 at the end).

I’ve been (very) slowly working on this since January, and finally got around to finishing it. It was created for inclusion on the light novel sales thread, and will be included in there shortly. You may also want to use those rankings (on post 3) in comparison to the figures below.

The data used consists of the oricon weekly light novel sales data the period of 31st March 2008 to present, with 2 weeks missing in 2008 and 7 in 2009 – in other words, all the weekly sales data that I have access to.

If a volume has multiple releases, then any sales within 3 weeks of the initial release/initial ranking (whichever is sooner) will be counted. Any after this, including rereleases, are not.
If a volume ranks for the first time on the week of release, but there are sales before this point of <1000, these have been ignored; if there are sales of >1000, these are counted as the first week.

Rank – Sales figure for first 3 weeks – title – volume #

*1    471364    biblia koshodou no jiken techou    4
*2    405113    suzumiya haruhi series 10
*3    358724    biblia koshodou no jiken techou    5
*4    348891    biblia koshodou no jiken techou    6
*5    348325    biblia koshodou no jiken techou    3
*6    264435    sword art online    12
*7    256354    sword art online    13
*8    255379    kagerou daze    5
*9    254338    sword art online    14
10    251311    sword art online    15
11    243505    sword art online    11
12    237754    sword art online progressive    3
13    236696    sword art online progressive    2
14    218728    kagerou daze    3
15    213749    sword art online progressive    1
16    213072    shinyaku toaru majutsu no index    2
17    206513    boku wa tomodachi ga sukunai    7
18    203814    kagerou daze    4
19    198238    shinyaku toaru majutsu no index    3
20    195361    ore no imouto ga konnani kawaii wake ga nai    8
21    194714    mahouka koukou no rettousei    16
22    194201    kuroko no basket replace    4
23    193869    koimonogatari
24    190210    ore no imouto ga konnani kawaii wake ga nai    12
25    188383    boku wa tomodachi ga sukunai    8
26    183267    tsukimonogatari
27    181255    ore no imouto ga konnani kawaii wake ga nai    10
28    179139    mahouka koukou no rettousei    15
29    179008    mahouka koukou no rettousei    14
30    179000    baka to test to shoukanjuu    6 pt 1
31    178424    ore no imouto ga konnani kawaii wake ga nai    9
32    171708    onimonogatari
33    171217    koyomimonogatari
34    171076    boku wa tomodachi ga sukunai    6
35    169972    shinyaku toaru majutsu no index    1
36    168820    ore no imouto ga konnani kawaii wake ga nai    11
37    167712    otorimonogatari
38    165554    owarimonogatari    1
39    165493    shinyaku toaru majutsu no index    4
40    163639    kagerou daze    6

All volumes on the rankings above have 3 weeks’ of ranking data included.

1 year of posting weekly light novel releases – blog post 2 – Some statistics

With this sort-of one year anniversary, I thought it would be a suitable time to post some statistics from the last year or so of light novel releases. Unfortunately, due to some of the changes that have occurred over this time (set out in the previous blog post) there’s not all that much data that I can easily put together for the entire year. Plus there have been a few blips along the way, which I thought I had best establish before starting. All the data below comes with the following three caveats:

– There is no data for w/c 15th September 2014. I had asked someone else to post it for me, but they never did, and I overwrote the data with the next week before I found this out. Fortunately, due to the fact that the first post was made on a Wednesday, and the data here includes the ones that will be posted yesterday, this actually makes it closer to a year’s worth of data (1 day too few rather than 6 too many), although there is some overlap.
– As mentioned above, the releases for 3 weeks in February which are not listed as being published under a recognisable label or are published by a label that is in no way a light novel label are not included.
– It is possible that an entry or two has slipped through the net as a result of release date change at exactly the wrong time, or that a re-release slipped into the data at some point without me realising (I caught one which I hadn’t previously noticed when I went back through the posts).

Now that’s out the way, onto the data. There are four sets of data here. If you want to know more info behind something, or want to have a piece of data that isn’t here, feel free to ask, but bear in mind that there is a chance I will not be able to give a suitable answer.

1 year of posting weekly light novel releases – blog post 1 – A history

Just a note that to some readers this post could come across as rather dry. There’s some statisticky (is that a word?) bits to come in the next blog post (which should be posted in an hour or two) if that’s more the sort of thing you are interested in.

Best selling light novel titles without an anime adaptation

For a while now, it has seemed as though almost every light novel series that sells decently will, sooner or later, receive an anime adaptation. Particularly if it doesn’t receive a live action adaptation.

So if we want to try to second guess what series are likely to get anime in the near future, one approach is to look at how much the series is selling.

Firstly, I apologise that this is a bit of a wall of text. As I went down I gradually stripped out things that weren’t relevant, and each list indicates a step along the way. If you want a list of literally all the series with no anime adaptation, then you want the third list. If you’re interested in the top series that don’t have an anime but might actually get one, you want the last list. Feel free to skip straight to these if you wish.

To start with, we need some sort of restriction as to what does or does not count as a light novel. To make things simple, I have decided to count it as anything that I include in my spreadsheets for the lndb thread. I know that some of these aren’t, strictly speaking, light novels but oh well. Obviously, things that predate sales data are not included.

Here are the top 10 volumes on that list:
*1. 2,323,668 moshi koukou yakyuu no joshi manager ga drucker no “management” wo yondara
*2. 1,309,763 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 1
*3. *,914,898 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 2
*4. *,893,731 toshokan sensou 1
*5. *,792,816 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 3
*6. *,654,786 kagerou days 1
*7. *,633,832 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 4
*8. *,631,455 sword art online 1
*9. *,584,091 toshokan sensou 2
10. *,564,875 kagerou days 2

Obviously some of these have anime adaptations, so getting rid of these (including any series with anime spinoffs as opposed to direct adaptations, and also including light novels that are side stories, sequels or direct spin-offs as part of the same series) the top 10 becomes:

*1. 1,309,763 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 1
*2. *,914,898 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 2
*3. *,792,816 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 3
*4. *,633,832 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 4
*5. *,546,627 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 5
*6. *,484,448 biblia koshodou no jiken techou 6
*7. *,316,385 bannou kanteishi q no jikenbo 1
*8. *,207,802 bannou kanteishi q no jikenbo 2
*9. *,202,675 sora tobu kouhoushitsu
10. *,173,129 tenchi meisatsu

Having the top 6 all belong to the same series and only 4 different things in the top 10 is, obviously, ridiculous, so we reduce it down to just the bestselling volume from each series to get the following:

*1. 1,309,763 biblia koshodou no jiken techou
*2. *,316,385 bannou kanteishi q no jikenbo
*3. *,202,675 sora tobu kouhoushitsu
*4. *,173,129 tenchi meisatsu
*5. *,154,727 oishii coffee no ire kata
*6. *,147,310 kokuhaku yokou-renshuu
*7. *,131,034 omoide no toki shuri shimasu
*8. *,*87,319 furachi na fascination
*9. *,*85,501 step father step
10. *,*82,084 all you need is kill

A nice list there, with only a couple of things (ranks 6, 8 and 10) that are actually published under light novel labels. But there we go – that’s one of the effects of using a list that takes a very liberal approach to what counts as a light novel as the basis.

Many of these things, though, have live action adaptations. While it is certainly not unheard of, most things that have live action adaptations do not go on to get anime adaptations as well. As one of the main points of this list is to look at what is likely to get an anime, we can remove these series as noise. Furthermore, some of them are only as high as they are because of these live action adaptations pushing them up or back into the rankings.

Doing this list is rather harder for me, though (I can’t just look it up on MAL), and there is a chance that I will miss something. Please let me know if I do.

*1. *,154,727 oishii coffee no ire kata
*2. *,147,310 kokuhaku yokou-renshuu
*3. *,131,034 omoide no toki shuri shimasu
*4. *,*87,319 furachi na fascination
*5. *,*81,170 youkai apartment no yuuga na nichijou
*6. *,*75,840 okitegami kyouko no bibouroku
*7. *,*69,682 zerozaki hitoshiki no ningen kankei (zaregoto series)
*8. *,*69,218 shoujo fujuubun
*9. *,*64,561 senbonzakura
10. *,*63,004 crash blaze

We’re coming down to rather more realistic levels now. But there’s still more stuff to get rid of. Oishii Coffee no Ire Kata has a radio drama, which probably counts in the same way as a TV drama. Furthermore, several of these series are now long finished. While finished series can get an anime (and, perhaps more frustratingly, can be brought back without warning), they are generally a much lower priority for the publishers, who may no longer even hold the rights to the series, and so again an anime is a lot less likely. Again, this isn’t always easy to work out, so if you know of series that are finished but still listed here please let me know.

*1. *,147,310 kokuhaku yokou-renshuu
*2. *,131,034 omoide no toki shuri shimasu
*3. *,*75,840 okitegami kyouko no bibouroku
*4. *,*64,561 senbonzakura
*5. *,*59,714 tenshitachi no kadai katsudou
*6. *,*47,438 dungeon ni deai wo motomeru no wa machigatteiru no darou ka*
*7. *,*46,517 zettai naru isolator
*8. *,*44,313 eromanga-sensei
*9. *,*42,066 fate/strange fake
10. *,*40,186 shuuen no shiori

DanMachi has an anime airing in Spring, of course.

Some of the others are published under labels that don’t make a habit of making anime adaptations. While it is possible that they would break this trend and the novels listed above are the ones they would most likely choose if they were to do this, there’s little chance of it actually happening.

Getting rid of stuff that has an anime planned and things that have a low-to-zero chance of getting anime for whatever reason leaves us with this list:

*1. *,*75,840 okitegami kyouko no bibouroku
*2. *,*46,517 zettai naru isolator
*3. *,*44,313 eromanga-sensei
*4. *,*42,066 fate/strange fake
*5. *,*40,186 shuuen no shiori
*6. *,*33,203 mitoushoukan://blood sign
*7. *,*31,020 dowl masters
*8. *,*30,818 toaru majutsu no heavy na zashiki warashi ga kantan na satsujinki no konkatsu jijou
*9. *,*24,912 gakusen toshi asterisk
10. *,*23,058 magdala de nemure

So there’s the list.
The top 3 are all from well known authors with series that have already had anime adaptations – Okitegami Kyouko is by Nisio Isin (Monogatari series), Zettai Naru Isolator is by Kawahara Reki (Sword Art Online/Accel World) and Eromanga-sensei is by Fushimi Tsukasa (OreImo). Along similar lines are Mitoushoukan://Blood Sign by Kamachi Kazuma (Toaru Majutsu no Index/Heavy Object) and DOWL Masters by Satou Tsutomu (Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei). All of these are fairly new and most have insufficient volumes out for an anime adaptation. Most if not all will likely get one sooner or later. Magdala de Nemure is by the same author as Ookami to Koushinryou.
Then you have a couple of things that are spin-off adaptations from other sources – Fate/Strange Fake from the Fate/Stay Night visual novel, and Shuuen no Shiori from a vocaloid song.
The series at #8 is a crossover series, so this may be a bit less likely to get an anime.
And then Gakusen Toshi Asterisk at number 9, the sole series on this top 10 list that is neither a spin-off nor written by an author who has had a different series get an anime adaptation. With Overlord and Gate: Jietai Kanochi Nite, Kaku Tatakaeru both having anime adaptations announced, there are no other series which have had over 17k sales in 2014 or 2015 that would break this status if the list was extended further (the first that would is Zero Kara Hajimeru Mahou no Sho volume 1, with sales of 16887 (EDIT: this is on the weekly data – it had 21449 sales as of the end of month January 2015).

Some stuff that was excluded and why:
Ijinkan Garou – published by Cobalt Bunko, who have not done an anime adaptation since the 4th season of Maria-sama ga Miteru in 2009.
Various KanColle series – KanColle itself has had an anime adaptation. While this is not the same story as the various light novels that the game has spun off it still counts.
Mikagura Gakuen Kumikyoku – has already had an anime adaptation announced.
Heavy Object – has already had an anime adaptation announced.
Gin no Ryukishidan – published by Kadokawa Beans bunko which hasn’t had an anime adaptation of one of its series since Saiunkoku Monogatari in 2008. This is also the same label as Kokuhaku Yokou-Renshuu. It might also be finished.
Isekai Cheat Magician, Knights & Magic – both published by Hero Bunko, which has no past record of anime adaptations.
Tokage no Ou – I think this is finished.
Sakurako-san no Ashimoto ni wa Shitai ga Umatteiru – has already had an anime adaptation announced.
Kamisama no Goyou Hito – published by Media Works Bunko, which has no past record of anime adaptations.
Haunted Campus – published by Kadokawa Horror Bunko, which has no past record of anime adaptations.
Hachi-nan tte, Sore wa Nai Deshou! – published by MF Books, which has no past record of anime adaptations.

Durarara Season 2 – can history repeat itself?

Back in January 2010 something unprecedented began. The anime adaptation of a light novel series with fairly average sales started airing. Nothing unusual about that, you might think, although it was one of the lowest selling series to ever get a 2-cour anime adaptation*. That anime series then produced a boost to the light novel sales. Nothing unusual about that either. This sales boost was enough to get the backlog volumes to appear on the weekly rankings fairly consistently. That is unusual but nothing exceptional.

However, the end result of this is something that has, at least as far as there is data for, never happened either before or since. In the year end rankings, Durarara!! had four of the five bestselling light novel volumes of 2010. Sword Art Online managed the same in 2012, but in Durarara!!’s case it was all old volumes, and not newly released ones – in other words, volumes that were there purely thanks to the anime boost. When you consider that SAO pre-anime had sales that were many times higher than the equivalent for Durarara!!** this becomes even more spectacular (SAO’s sales boost for volume 1 was slightly larger in actual terms, though).

But the anime fans who picked up these books were a fickle lot, and sales of the series dropped away hard with every new volume – drops of more than 20% from one volume to the next being normal***. The latest volume (of the sequel series) sold just 31k copies before dropping out of the weekly rankings. If it weren’t for the relatively newly available monthly rankings, Durarara would thus be the only series on record where a later volume sold less than 10% of an earlier one (with both volumes ranking).

But now, in January 2015, we have the start of a second season of the anime. In the rather odd format of three split cours.

There are a lot of people out there sitting with the first few volumes of this series on their bookshelves, or stashed away in the cupboard or crate somewhere. There is thus, in theory, a huge potential market for the books to get a big sales boost without the series even gaining any new fans – a fairly unprecedented state. All the series has to do is remind the people who bought a volume or two before that it exists, and why they went out and bought those books.

5 years is a long gap between two anime series, though. Will that work against the series, on account of a lot of people who watched back then may have stopped following, or changed to liking a different type of story or simply forgotten everything that happened? Or will it work in the series’ favour, bringing in a new fanbase that wasn’t even around when the first season aired, and reminding people who had completely forgotten about the series’ existance that yes, that was a rather good series, wasn’t it?

Can history possibly, just possibly, repeat itself?

Personally, I think it has a fairly good chance of far exceeding any other sales boost from the second season of a light novel adaptation in history. Only time will tell, though.

*Tokyo Ravens is the only one in the last 3 years which did not have significantly higher sales before the 2 cours anime began.

**The actual sales data for Durarara!! before the anime aired is patchy, but from the data we have I would say that slightly under 20k sales per volume is the right sort of range.

*** volume 10’s first 3 weeks sales were 128827, volume 11’s were 100212, volume 12’s were 71412